CRONOS Audit Trail
Trace
Objective
Analyze CASE VIGIA-INCIDENT-002 — 'Insider or intruder?' — to determine whether J. Ramírez exfiltrated the database (insider) or an external actor used stolen credentials (intruder), assign verdict (SILENT / SUSPICION / MALICE) with capped score, and provide actionable security recommendation.
Step-by-step trace
Analyze CASE VIGIA-INCIDENT-002 — 'Insider or intruder?' — to determine whether J. Ramírez exfiltrated the database (insider) or an external actor used stolen credentials (intruder), assign verdict (SILENT / SUSPICION / MALICE) with capped score, and provide actionable security recommendation.
insider_malice2026-07-19T01:10:53.088782+00:00J. Ramírez intentionally exfiltrated the database using their own credentials and knowledge of internal systems.
credential_breach2026-07-19T01:10:55.069081+00:00An external actor used J. Ramírez's stolen VPN credentials (exposed 2026-05-30) to authenticate via corporate VPN and execute the query.
compromised_workstation2026-07-19T01:10:56.919302+00:00J. Ramírez's workstation was compromised before the flight, allowing remote execution of the query while they were in transit.
The exfiltration query ran inside an authenticated DB session belonging to J. Ramírez.
The query used an internal-only view, `v_customer_pii_full`, whose name is known only to staff.
The connection originated from the corporate VPN IP range.
J. Ramírez was on international flight LX-8021 (boarding pass scanned 02:05 UTC, airline manifest confirms departure 02:40 UTC, landing 09:15 UTC) during the entire exfiltration window; no in-flight wifi was purchased on that route.
Two weeks earlier (2026-05-30), J. Ramírez's VPN credentials appeared in a public credential-dump paste indexed by a breach-notification service; any external actor could have authenticated to the VPN with them.
The connection originated from the corporate VPN IP range.
compromised_workstation2026-07-19T01:11:18.118047+00:00No evidence supports remote execution capability or persistence on J. Ramírez's workstation; no logs or telemetry indicate lateral movement or beaconing before or after the flight.
VERDICT: SUSPICION (55/100) — insider malice by J. Ramírez is strongly contradicted by alibi (flight with no wifi) and unsupported by workstation evidence, but cannot be ruled out entirely due to unresolved conflict between internal view knowledge and credential exposure. The prime hypothesis 'insider_malice' has both strong supporting and refuting evidence; therefore, MALICE is not confirmed.
Hypotheses
| Label | Status | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| insider_malice | Active | J. Ramírez intentionally exfiltrated the database using their own credentials and knowledge of internal systems. |
| credential_breach | Active | An external actor used J. Ramírez's stolen VPN credentials (exposed 2026-05-30) to authenticate via corporate VPN and execute the query. |
| compromised_workstation | Discarded | No evidence supports remote execution capability or persistence on J. Ramírez's workstation; no logs or telemetry indicate lateral movement or beaconing before or after the flight. |
Decision
- Type A: 'insider_malice' has evidence both supporting and refuting it
chain_ok : true